Premiership Betting Analysis from PinnacleSports
11th Jun 2007, 19:23
Forbes magazine’s annual rich list of football clubs published in March of this year showed that ten of the top twenty-five most valuable football clubs in the world play in the Premiership. Their relative positions in that elite group correlate closely with success on the field, underlining the close relationship between spending power and success, the prevailing philosophy of ‘speculate to accumulate’ seems to hold true. The frenetic horse-trading of the summer months is the most important phase in the process of Premiership clubs reorganising and strengthening their squads, providing ante-post players with vital clues to next season’s competition.
Gunners Look to Future With Modest Summer Budget
Arsene Wenger is acknowledged as the shrewdest judge of hot new talent, and the Arsenal coach is building a team of young prospects that should keep the Gunners among the Premiership’s elite for many seasons to come. The Arsenal Babes progressed to the final of the Carling Cup including a 6-3 win at Anfield, but fans of the North London club doubt whether they are capable of mounting a serious Premiership challenge, and are clambering for some big name signings.
The importance to Arsenal of retaining the services of Thierry Henry cannot be overstated. Henry is an example one of an ever rarer breed – a proven Premiership scorer. Prior to last season’s injury marred campaign, the Frenchman recorded five successive 20-plus tallies, earning the top-scorer award on four occasions, two of which coincided with title winning seasons. Speculation around Henry’s future refuses to go away, despite him committing to the club for the remainder of his career. Henry is advised by Darren Dein, the son of former vice-chairman, David Dein, who’s exit in April after 24 years at the club has fuelled the speculation.
Dein’s resignation was reportedly due to his preference for approval of a buy-out by an American billionaire, Stan Kroenke, who currently holds a 12% stake, which is opposed by the rest of the Arsenal board. How much of this friction will trickle down to the pitch is hard to gauge, but if it does cause Henry to leave, the consequences will be significant. It looks however like being a war of attrition between Kroenke and the Arsenal board, which won’t be settled in the short term.
The Gunners were generally weak on the road last term, perhaps missing the experience of wise heads such as Viera, Campbell and Lauren. A couple of recognised international signings are anticipated, but the club operates a strict wage policy which can be a stumbling block to players already earning huge sums. Wenger’s only purchase to date is promising Polish goalkeeper, Lukasz Fabianski, who is seen as a long term replacement for Jens Lehmann. The important items on the Arsenal manager’s shopping list remain, including a clinical finisher, - having previously made uncharacteristic misjudgements in that area - and a left winger, with French international, Florent Malouda, the front runner.
At least the Gunners and their fans have now had a full season to get accustomed to their new stadium. Despite the unfamiliar surroundings Arsenal suffered just one defeat at the Emirates Stadium last season in all competitions. If Wenger can add some experienced signings to his talented young squad, and cure their away day blues, Arsenal could become credible title challengers at a decent price with www.PinnacleSports.com.
Chelsea Tighten Belt But Still Top Spending Charts
The 2005 ante-post Premiership market saw a huge plunge on Chelsea the season after Roman Abramovich’s revolution at Chelsea had begun, when despite spending £100m, Claudio Ranieri failed to land a single trophy. With the benefit of hindsight, the 6/1 available at PinnacleSports.com the following year represented amazing value, if bettors correctly anticipated that the arrival of Mourinho would be the crucial catalyst in the process of winning titles at Chelsea. In contrast, the Blues have never been shorter ante-post than last year after the Special One made Michael Ballack the Premiership’s highest earner and Andriy Shevchenko (£30m) its record signing, yet they failed to deliver the title. The message for Premiership bettors is – money alone doesn’t buy success.
Having spent £250million Roman Abramovich was rewarded with back-to-back Premiership titles, but that level of flagrant spending has proved unsustainable. When Mourinho needed defensive cover in the 2007 January transfer window, Abramovich’s answer was ‘Nyet’. The tension arising from this disagreement came close to ending their relationship, and was certainly a factor in the loss of the title and possibly their failure in the Champions League at the hands of Liverpool. Bettors must decide whether harmony has been restored.
In any case the new prudence at Chelsea looks likely to remain, chief executive Peter Kenyon, aims for the club to break even by 2009-10. After their league success in 2005, the club posted a record £140m loss, posing the question as to whether Mourinho can now succeed without financial carte blanche?
The first indication of a change in transfer policy is given by Mourinho’s first summer signing midfielder, Steve Sidwell. He should suffer none of the problems of adjustment after very successful first season in the Premiership with Reading, but it remains to be seen whether he has the potential to develop into the kind of world class player Chelsea need. Mourinho will be glad to finally welcome Brazilian central defender, Alex, into the fold after work permit problems. The Tank was a tower of strength at PSV and will be a superior replacement for the bungling Khalid Boulahrouz who may be followed out the door by Geremi and Paulo Ferreira.
Chelsea have been investing heavily in their academy, which is producing interesting prospects such as Israeli international, Ben Sahar (17yr), and Scott Sinclair (18yr) . However, with just one first-team start between them, they are players for the future and not the impending season, for which Mourinho will need reinforcements. The capture of Claudio Pizarro from Bayern Munich adds another attacking option but with 71 goals in five Bundesliga seasons, the Peruvian is hardly a goal machine.
Chelsea did lift two domestic trophies last season, but success is measured in Champions League victories and Premiership titles at Stamford Bridge. The expectation is that Mourinho must win at least one of these this term in order to see out his contract in 2010. While significant transfer activity at the club could be critical in tying down long term contracts for Lampard and Terry to allow them to concentrate 100% on the field.
Ultimately Chelsea’s chances next season may rest on the abilities of Jose Mourinho to flourish under financial restraint, while establishing complete squad unity while hoping his squad avoids the injury blight of last term.