Premiership Betting Analysis - New Season, New Opportunities
1st Aug 2007, 22:42
Asian Handicaps – An Antidote to One-sided Premiership Betting
As the new Premiership takes shape, football bettors might benefit from reassessing their approach to betting on the English top flight. In recent seasons, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd (more commonly known as ‘the big four’) have widened the gap between themselves and the rest of the league as their financial strength has allowed them to consolidate their power, particularly when playing at home.
In their final home game of last season, Chelsea equalled Liverpool’s record of 63 consecutive unbeaten home games. While in the 2003/04 season, Arsenal achieved the Holy Grail of going an entire season undefeated.
In the past two campaigns, Chelsea, Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal have between them lost just eight home games, mostly to each other. What that often means is a large proportion of prohibitive high priced favourites on the betting card with little financial incentive for backers. For fans of a traditional 1X2 Saturday accumulator, there is the hugely unappetising potential prospect of backing a multiple of the four big-guns at home to lesser opposition for combined odds of something around even-money. A similar scenario applies to Celtic in Scotland, who have a stranglehold on the SPL, and across the continent where last season for example, Inter Milan broke the European record for consecutive home wins (17).
The natural antidote for the increasing prevalence of one-sided football contests is Asian Handicapping. An Asian Handicap levels the playing field via a hypothetical goal bias, giving punters the opportunity of backing a team like Chelsea for example at better than even money at home to newly promoted Derby.
Asian Handicaps Explained
The Internet’s largest online bookmaker, PinnacleSports.com, is a market leader in Asian Handicap betting pricing markets to c. 102% compared to 1X2 markets priced between 108% and 114% at most high street bookies. For the uninitiated, an Asian Handicap is a method of betting football that eliminates the possibility of losing if a game ends in a draw after 90 minutes. Teams are ‘handicapped’ to offset any perceived difference in abilities, using a spread based on goal superiority which eliminates the draw. There are three basic types of Asian Handicaps:
Level Handicap
Where there is no perceived difference in abilities between Team A and Team B, no handicap bias is assigned, and both start off (0) also known as pk, pick’em or scratch. To win a bet on either team, all the punter must do is identify the team which scores more goals than their opponent; all bets are refunded on the tie.
Single Handicap
Where there is a perceived difference in abilities between Team A and Team B, the superior team will be given an appropriate goal handicap to level the playing field for betting purposes i.e. -0.5 goal, -1 goal, -1.5 goals etc. but the odds will increase accordingly.
For example, if you bet on Team A with a handicap of -1 goal, they must win by more than one goal to cover their handicap and win you your bet. If they only win by a goal, the result with the handicap applied is a draw for betting purposes, so your bet is refunded. If Team B draw or win, you will lose your bet on Team A.
Double or Split Handicap
Where the difference in two teams’ abilities is slight, split ball Asian Handicaps may be used that split the stake into two separate bets at the same odds. For example, Team A might be offered (0 & -0.5). If you bet on Team A and they lose, you will lose both bets as they did not cover either handicap. If the match ends in a draw, half of your stake at (0) will be refunded, and the other half at (-0.5) will lose. If Team A wins, both handicaps will be covered so both bets win.
If you’re stuck in the past slavishly following three-way fixed odds betting, the chances are you’re not getting a decent return on your investment, and your gambling might benefit from the fresh perspective that Asian Handicapping provides.