Analysis for Federer-Karlovic (ATP Indian Wells)

Head-to-head record 6:1

Bit of a punt here. Federer is currently a bit of a headcase and hasn't played for 2 months. Here in Indian Wells, he wasn’t convincing in the first round beating just mediocre Gicquel in a tight match. It would be a wasting of time to praise Federer here as we have already written a lot about his enormous skills. The main reason for this pick is his opponent though. Without the words of admiration for his tennis skills, we just wanted to say that Karlovic is a player who has a chance against anyone in the world. Taking advantage of his height, he is heavily reliant on his serve. With a more acute angle from his racquet to the service line, his first serves have a higher chance of coming in, thereby rendering many of them unhittable, let alone returnable. With bad returns from his opponents, he normally just has to put the ball away for a winner without the need of a proper volley. This year, he hasn’t shown anything special but we must side with him at these odds. Croatian giant is 1-6 down against Federer but all their meeting were deadly tight and we think anything can happen again. Like we said, Karlovic can easily loose to big underdogs but can also defeat the best players as just a few points usually decide his matches. In this light, odds above 6 are crazy.