Analysis for Nadal-Murray (ATP US Open)

Head-to-head record 5:0

Andy Murray of Scotland will have another chance to beat his Nemesis in US Open semis. Nadal have won all 5 previous matches against young Brit but we think that Murray´s odds are getting short and short. Murray trained hard in the off-season, working with fitness experts in Miami, leading Murray to say he had never been better prepared for a season. Murray's hard work paid off immediately as he sealed his fourth career title at the 2008 Qatar ExxonMobil Open, defeating top seed and world number four Nikolay Davydenko in the semifinals, before defeating up-and-coming Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka in a tight final, which assured Murray rose back into the Top 10. He continued to play well then on all surfaces and returned to action on the US Open Series in a great shape. In the Toronto Masters he reached the semi-finals, defeating Novak Djokovic for the first time on his route there, before defeating Djokovic again, in the final of the Cincinnati Masters, to win his first Master Series shield. This ensured that Murray reached a career high of No. 6 in the world. After winning in Cincinnati, Murray went into the men's singles at the 2008 Summer Olympics as one of the favourites for gold, but he suffered a shock defeat to Lu Yen-Hsun in the first round. In the U.S. Open, Murray progressed to the third round where he came back from being two sets down against Jurgen Melzer to reach the last 16. He then qualified for the quarter-finals by beating 10th seed Stanislas Wawrinka 6–1, 6–3, 6–3. In the quarterfinals, he stopped 17th seed Juan Martin del Potro from winning his 24th match in a row, coming back from a break in both the first and fourth sets. He is projected to become number 4 in the world for the first time after his US Open result. He is currently full of confidence and we think he shouldn’t be such a big underdog against Nadal. Nadal is the top-seeded player for the first time at a Grand Slam tournament. He did not lose a set during his first three matches, defeating qualifiers in the first and second rounds and Viktor Troicki in the third round. He then needed four sets to defeat both Sam Querrey in the fourth round and Mardy Fish in the quarterfinals. He seemed to be a bit tired in his last two matches and we think he could come short in the semis. Odds above 4 are worth taking for us.