Analysis for Nadal-Tsonga (ATP Indian Wells)

Head-to-head record 1:1

May be a shocking pick for the first sight - we usually back against Spaniard at high odds as we don’t like his defensive style of play. On the other hand, Tsonga is the player we admire a lot but his odds lack value at all. Well, Tsonga is having extremely good season and demolished Nadal at Oz Open this year but conditions in Melbourne were much faster and offensive-minded Tsonga took the advantage of them. On the contrary, the slow conditions in Indian Wells should suit to Nadal. Rallies from the baseline are usually much longer here and players need good movement and small number of unforced errors rather than the ability to hit the balls hard from all positions trying to shoot the winner. Nadal is a defending champion here and played well in the first two matches. Tsonga also played well but he would need to show his best to defeat Nadal again. If his odds were above 3, we would probably take him for a small stake but at these odds, the value lie on Nadal´s side. We are not going to write about their strengths and weaknesses as we have already said a lot about both of them. The main reasons for this pick are the odds which don’t reflect the fact, that Nadal is the World No.2 and defending champion here. We think his odds should be around 1.5 and that’s why we take Nadal here even when we like Tsonga´s playing style much more.