Analysis for Kubot-Gimelstob (Tokyo)

American veteran Justin Gimelstob will face unknown Polish Lukasz Kubot in the first Tokyo round. Gimelstob's career has been on a pretty fast downward trajectory during the last years, plagued by injuries and self-doubt that nearly convinced American to quit the pro tour. Gimelstob's career was ascending in 1998, two years after he'd left UCLA after his freshman season. He defeated Agassi and cracked the top 100 for the first time in 1997. He was considered to be a player of big potential but injuries played a significant role, starting with two herniated disks in his back and followed by torn ankle ligaments. By the spring of 2001, after he'd lost in the first round in six consecutive tournaments, Gimelstob was ready to hang it up. Instead, he took inspiration from fellow American Vince Spadea, a former top 20 player who underwent a lengthy losing streak in 2000 but worked his way back up the rankings by playing lower-level pro tournaments. "That's the kind of situation you have to have a lot of respect for," Gimelstob said. "I think the things that make pro athletes successful are what have given me the ability to come back," he said. "The work ethic, the desire to challenge yourself to be as good as you can be. I still have the desire. I look forward to practice, and to putting in the work. As long as you have that, you might as well go for it." Now he is in the same situation again – he hasn´t won a single match in 2007 and his YTD record is really poor (0-11). On the other hand, his performances look better from mach to match and even when he dropped out of top 500, he is showing the fighting spirit and big tennis heart. Especially his grandslam appearances against world-class opponents were pretty tight (lost twice to Roddick and once to Almagro without making shame). His opponent will be Lukasz Kubot who is a challenger player without big a potential for making it through to the top 100. He prefers clay and his YTD record is also very poor. He lost to players such as Lacko, Silva, Capkovic, Luzzi or Levine this year. If the breakthrough chance for Gimelstob is about to come this year, it will definitely be in this match. We think that odds above 2.5 are just too high.